EPL · MW3Full time
Arsenal
2–1
Chelsea
Called it
Marcus predicted Arsenal at 58% confidence. The result confirmed it.
Marcus's prediction
ARSENAL
Marcus favours Arsenal to win (58% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Arsenal 2-0 Chelsea.
58
Conf.
Arsenal58%
Draw24%
Chelsea17%
Goals markets
52%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
2–0 12%1–0 11%1–1 11%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: home (57%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (63%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: