EPL · MW1
Marcus's pickDRAW
0
Arsenal33%
Draw34%
Coventry City33%
Full analysis
Every EPL match.
Every prediction
on the record.
Marcus uses a calibrated ensemble of market odds and a Dixon-Coles statistical model to predict the outcome of every Premier League and Champions League match. Every hit and miss is published in full.
Updated 3 Aug 2026 · Full record →
What good looks like: the best football prediction models hit 55-65% accuracy across a full season. A Brier score below 0.22 is competitive.
Fixtures
9 matchesSaturday, 22 August 2026
EPL · MW1
Marcus's pickDRAW
0
Hull City33%
Draw34%
Manchester United33%
Full analysis
EPL · MW1
Marcus's pickDRAW
0
Ipswich Town33%
Draw34%
Sunderland33%
Full analysis
EPL · MW1
Marcus's pickDRAW
0
Nottingham Forest33%
Draw34%
Leeds United33%
Full analysis
EPL · MW1
Marcus's pickDRAW
0
Everton33%
Draw34%
Crystal Palace33%
Full analysis
EPL · MW1
Marcus's pickDRAW
0
Brentford33%
Draw34%
Tottenham Hotspur33%
Full analysis
How Marcus makes each call
Three signals, one ensemble, continuous self-calibration. No black box.
Read the methodology~0.62
Market signal weight
De-vigged bookmaker odds, the best single predictor
~0.28
Stat model weight
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson, fit on 5 seasons of EPL data
~0.10
Form adjustment
Recent xG and result momentum
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