EPL · MW5
Manchester City
vs
Sunderland
Marcus's prediction
MANCHESTER CITY
Marcus favours Manchester City to win (70% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Manchester City 1-1 Sunderland.
70
Conf.
Manchester City70%
Draw19%
Sunderland12%
Goals markets
53%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 12%1–0 10%2–1 10%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: home (75%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (55%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: