EPL · MW5Full time
Nottingham Forest
0–1
Coventry City
Called it
Marcus predicted Coventry City at 50% confidence. The result confirmed it.
Marcus's prediction
COVENTRY CITY
Marcus favours Coventry City to win (50% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Coventry City.
50
Conf.
Nottingham Forest26%
Draw24%
Coventry City50%
Goals markets
53%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 12%1–0 10%2–1 10%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: away (60%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (55%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: