EPL · MW5Full time
Bournemouth
0–1
Liverpool
Called it
Marcus predicted Liverpool at 44% confidence. The result confirmed it.
Marcus's prediction
LIVERPOOL
Marcus favours Liverpool to win (44% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Bournemouth 1-1 Liverpool.
44
Conf.
Bournemouth31%
Draw26%
Liverpool44%
Goals markets
61%
Over 2.5 goals
64%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 11%1–2 9%2–1 8%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: away (44%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: away (43%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: