EPL · MW5Full time
Manchester City
5–3
Sunderland
Called it
Marcus predicted Manchester City at 69% confidence. The result confirmed it.
Marcus's prediction
MANCHESTER CITY
Marcus favours Manchester City to win (69% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Manchester City 1-1 Sunderland.
69
Conf.
Manchester City69%
Draw19%
Sunderland13%
Goals markets
53%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 12%1–0 10%2–1 10%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: home (73%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (55%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: