EPL · MW5Full time
Brentford
3–0
Chelsea
Marcus missed this one
Picked:ChelseaActual:3–0
We don't hide the misses. Every prediction stays on the record.
Marcus's prediction
CHELSEA
Marcus favours Chelsea to win (37% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Brentford 1-1 Chelsea.
37
Conf.
Brentford37%
Draw26%
Chelsea37%
Goals markets
58%
Over 2.5 goals
61%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 12%2–1 9%1–2 8%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: away (38%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (40%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: