EPL · MW5Full time
Everton
1–0
Ipswich Town
Called it
Marcus predicted Everton at 54% confidence. The result confirmed it.
Marcus's prediction
EVERTON
Marcus favours Everton to win (54% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Everton 1-1 Ipswich Town.
54
Conf.
Everton54%
Draw25%
Ipswich Town21%
Goals markets
53%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 12%1–0 10%2–1 10%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: home (53%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (55%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: