EPL · MW5Full time
Brighton
3–0
Arsenal
Called it
Marcus predicted Brighton at 47% confidence. The result confirmed it.
Marcus's prediction
BRIGHTON
Marcus favours Brighton to win (47% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Brighton 1-1 Arsenal.
47
Conf.
Brighton47%
Draw25%
Arsenal27%
Goals markets
47%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 13%0–1 12%0–2 10%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: home (56%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: away (53%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: