EPL · MW5
Leeds United
vs
Crystal Palace
Marcus's prediction
CRYSTAL PALACE
Marcus favours Crystal Palace to win (47% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Leeds United 1-1 Crystal Palace.
47
Conf.
Leeds United28%
Draw25%
Crystal Palace47%
Goals markets
53%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 12%1–0 10%2–1 10%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: away (56%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (55%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: