EPL · MW5Full time
Tottenham Hotspur
2–3
Aston Villa
Called it
Marcus predicted Aston Villa at 43% confidence. The result confirmed it.
Marcus's prediction
ASTON VILLA
Marcus favours Aston Villa to win (43% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Tottenham Hotspur 1-1 Aston Villa.
43
Conf.
Tottenham Hotspur32%
Draw25%
Aston Villa43%
Goals markets
53%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 12%1–0 10%2–1 10%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: away (51%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (55%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: