EPL · MW6
Arsenal
vs
Leeds United
Marcus's prediction
ARSENAL
Marcus favours Arsenal to win (67% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Arsenal 1-1 Leeds United.
67
Conf.
Arsenal67%
Draw20%
Leeds United13%
Goals markets
53%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 12%1–0 10%2–1 10%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: home (70%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (55%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: