EPL · MW2Full time
Aston Villa
0–1
Arsenal
Marcus missed this one
Picked:Aston VillaActual:0–1
We don't hide the misses. Every prediction stays on the record.
Marcus's prediction
ASTON VILLA
Marcus favours Aston Villa to win (53% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Aston Villa 1-1 Arsenal.
53
Conf.
Aston Villa53%
Draw23%
Arsenal24%
Goals markets
48%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 13%0–1 11%0–2 10%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: home (64%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: away (52%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: