EPL · MW6
Aston Villa
vs
Brentford
Marcus's prediction
ASTON VILLA
Marcus favours Aston Villa to win (38% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Aston Villa 1-1 Brentford.
38
Conf.
Aston Villa38%
Draw27%
Brentford35%
Goals markets
58%
Over 2.5 goals
60%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 12%2–1 9%1–0 7%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: away (37%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (45%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: