EPL · MW4Full time
Aston Villa
1–2
Nottingham Forest
Marcus missed this one
Picked:Aston VillaActual:1–2
We don't hide the misses. Every prediction stays on the record.
Marcus's prediction
ASTON VILLA
Marcus favours Aston Villa to win (46% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Aston Villa 1-1 Nottingham Forest.
46
Conf.
Aston Villa46%
Draw28%
Nottingham Forest27%
Goals markets
53%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 12%1–0 10%2–1 10%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: home (43%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (55%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: