EPL · MW4Full time
Bournemouth
2–2
Brentford
Marcus missed this one
Picked:BournemouthActual:2–2
We don't hide the misses. Every prediction stays on the record.
Marcus's prediction
BOURNEMOUTH
Marcus favours Bournemouth to win (40% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Bournemouth 1-1 Brentford.
40
Conf.
Bournemouth40%
Draw27%
Brentford34%
Goals markets
57%
Over 2.5 goals
61%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 12%2–1 9%1–2 8%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: home (39%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (42%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: