EPL · MW7
Bournemouth
vs
Sunderland
Marcus's prediction
BOURNEMOUTH
Marcus favours Bournemouth to win (47% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Bournemouth 1-1 Sunderland.
47
Conf.
Bournemouth47%
Draw27%
Sunderland26%
Goals markets
44%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 14%1–0 11%0–0 10%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: home (48%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (45%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: