EPL · MW7
Brentford
vs
Liverpool
Marcus's prediction
LIVERPOOL
Marcus favours Liverpool to win (40% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Brentford 1-1 Liverpool.
40
Conf.
Brentford34%
Draw26%
Liverpool40%
Goals markets
63%
Over 2.5 goals
65%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 11%1–2 9%2–1 8%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: away (39%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: away (43%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: