EPL · MW3Full time
Brentford
1–1
Sunderland
Marcus missed this one
Picked:BrentfordActual:1–1
We don't hide the misses. Every prediction stays on the record.
Marcus's prediction
BRENTFORD
Marcus favours Brentford to win (54% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Brentford 1-1 Sunderland.
54
Conf.
Brentford54%
Draw26%
Sunderland20%
Goals markets
46%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 13%1–0 11%0–0 9%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: home (57%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (46%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: