EPL · MW1Full time
Brighton
4–0
Aston Villa
Marcus missed this one
Picked:Aston VillaActual:4–0
We don't hide the misses. Every prediction stays on the record.
Marcus's prediction
ASTON VILLA
Marcus favours Aston Villa to win (41% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Brighton 1-1 Aston Villa.
41
Conf.
Brighton31%
Draw28%
Aston Villa41%
Goals markets
55%
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 13%2–1 9%1–2 8%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: away (44%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (40%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: