EPL · MW7
Brighton
vs
Crystal Palace
Marcus's prediction
BRIGHTON
Marcus favours Brighton to win (56% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Brighton 1-1 Crystal Palace.
56
Conf.
Brighton56%
Draw24%
Crystal Palace20%
Goals markets
49%
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 13%1–0 10%2–1 9%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: home (59%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (47%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: