EPL · MW3Full time
Brighton
1–1
Leeds United
Marcus missed this one
Picked:BrightonActual:1–1
We don't hide the misses. Every prediction stays on the record.
Marcus's prediction
BRIGHTON
Marcus favours Brighton to win (50% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Brighton 1-1 Leeds United.
50
Conf.
Brighton50%
Draw26%
Leeds United24%
Goals markets
53%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 12%1–0 10%2–1 10%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: home (48%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (55%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: