EPL · MW6
Chelsea
vs
Bournemouth
Marcus's prediction
BOURNEMOUTH
Marcus favours Bournemouth to win (50% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Chelsea 1-1 Bournemouth.
50
Conf.
Chelsea27%
Draw23%
Bournemouth50%
Goals markets
56%
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 12%2–1 9%1–0 8%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: away (57%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (46%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: