EPL · MW2Full time
Chelsea
4–3
Brighton
Marcus missed this one
Picked:BrightonActual:4–3
We don't hide the misses. Every prediction stays on the record.
Marcus's prediction
BRIGHTON
Marcus favours Brighton to win (46% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Chelsea 1-1 Brighton.
46
Conf.
Chelsea29%
Draw25%
Brighton46%
Goals markets
55%
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 12%2–1 9%1–0 8%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: away (52%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (45%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: