EPL · MW4Full time
Chelsea
2–2
Hull City
Marcus missed this, and was 74% confident
Picked:ChelseaActual:2–2
We don't hide the misses. Every prediction stays on the record.
Marcus's prediction
CHELSEA
Marcus favours Chelsea to win (74% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Chelsea 1-1 Hull City.
74
Conf.
Chelsea74%
Draw16%
Hull City10%
Goals markets
53%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 12%1–0 10%2–1 10%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: home (81%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (55%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: