EPL · MW4Full time
Coventry City
0–5
Brighton
Marcus missed this one
Picked:Coventry CityActual:0–5
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Marcus's prediction
COVENTRY CITY
Marcus favours Coventry City to win (51% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Coventry City 1-1 Brighton.
51
Conf.
Coventry City51%
Draw25%
Brighton23%
Goals markets
53%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 12%1–0 10%2–1 10%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: home (50%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (55%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: