EPL · MW2Full time
Crystal Palace
1–4
Manchester City
Called it
Marcus predicted Manchester City at 49% confidence. The result confirmed it.
Marcus's prediction
MANCHESTER CITY
Marcus favours Manchester City to win (49% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Crystal Palace 1-1 Manchester City.
49
Conf.
Crystal Palace27%
Draw24%
Manchester City49%
Goals markets
53%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 12%1–0 10%2–1 10%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: away (59%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (55%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: