EPL · MW7
Everton
vs
Chelsea
Marcus's prediction
EVERTON
Marcus favours Everton to win (39% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Everton 1-1 Chelsea.
39
Conf.
Everton39%
Draw26%
Chelsea34%
Goals markets
45%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 14%0–1 10%0–0 9%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: home (41%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: away (38%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: