EPL · MW1Full time
Everton
2–0
Crystal Palace
Marcus missed this one
Picked:Crystal PalaceActual:2–0
We don't hide the misses. Every prediction stays on the record.
Marcus's prediction
CRYSTAL PALACE
Marcus favours Crystal Palace to win (39% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Everton 1-1 Crystal Palace.
39
Conf.
Everton32%
Draw29%
Crystal Palace39%
Goals markets
39%
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 14%1–0 12%0–0 12%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: away (42%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (40%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: