EPL · MW1Full time
Fulham
2–3
Chelsea
Marcus missed this one
Picked:FulhamActual:2–3
We don't hide the misses. Every prediction stays on the record.
Marcus's prediction
FULHAM
Marcus favours Fulham to win (46% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Fulham 1-1 Chelsea.
46
Conf.
Fulham46%
Draw26%
Chelsea27%
Goals markets
51%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 13%1–2 8%2–1 8%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: home (50%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: away (37%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: