EPL · MW3Full time
Fulham
2–3
Crystal Palace
Called it
Marcus predicted Crystal Palace at 41% confidence. The result confirmed it.
Marcus's prediction
CRYSTAL PALACE
Marcus favours Crystal Palace to win (41% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Fulham 1-1 Crystal Palace.
41
Conf.
Fulham31%
Draw29%
Crystal Palace41%
Goals markets
44%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 14%1–0 11%0–0 10%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: away (45%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (42%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: