EPL · MW3Full time
Hull City
0–0
Aston Villa
Marcus missed this one
Picked:Hull CityActual:0–0
We don't hide the misses. Every prediction stays on the record.
Marcus's prediction
HULL CITY
Marcus favours Hull City to win (53% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Hull City 1-1 Aston Villa.
53
Conf.
Hull City53%
Draw26%
Aston Villa21%
Goals markets
53%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 12%1–0 10%2–1 10%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: home (52%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (55%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: