EPL · MW3Full time
Ipswich Town
0–2
Liverpool
Called it
Marcus predicted Liverpool at 53% confidence. The result confirmed it.
Marcus's prediction
LIVERPOOL
Marcus favours Liverpool to win (53% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Ipswich Town 1-1 Liverpool.
53
Conf.
Ipswich Town25%
Draw21%
Liverpool53%
Goals markets
53%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 12%1–0 10%2–1 10%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: away (64%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (55%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: