EPL · MW1Full time
Ipswich Town
2–1
Sunderland
Called it
Marcus predicted Ipswich Town at 40% confidence. The result confirmed it.
Marcus's prediction
IPSWICH TOWN
Marcus favours Ipswich Town to win (40% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Ipswich Town 1-1 Sunderland.
40
Conf.
Ipswich Town40%
Draw28%
Sunderland32%
Goals markets
53%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 12%1–0 10%2–1 10%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: away (36%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (55%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: