EPL · MW2Full time
Leeds United
1–1
Brentford
Marcus missed this one
Picked:Leeds UnitedActual:1–1
We don't hide the misses. Every prediction stays on the record.
Marcus's prediction
LEEDS UNITED
Marcus favours Leeds United to win (42% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Leeds United 1-1 Brentford.
42
Conf.
Leeds United42%
Draw27%
Brentford30%
Goals markets
53%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 12%1–0 10%2–1 10%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: home (38%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (55%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: