EPL · MW4Full time
Leeds United
4–1
Newcastle United
Called it
Marcus predicted Leeds United at 45% confidence. The result confirmed it.
Marcus's prediction
LEEDS UNITED
Marcus favours Leeds United to win (45% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Leeds United 1-1 Newcastle United.
45
Conf.
Leeds United45%
Draw27%
Newcastle United29%
Goals markets
53%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 12%1–0 10%2–1 10%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: home (41%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (55%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: