EPL · MW4Full time
Liverpool
0–0
Fulham
Marcus missed this one
Picked:FulhamActual:0–0
We don't hide the misses. Every prediction stays on the record.
Marcus's prediction
FULHAM
Marcus favours Fulham to win (53% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Liverpool 1-1 Fulham.
53
Conf.
Liverpool26%
Draw21%
Fulham53%
Goals markets
59%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 11%2–1 10%2–0 9%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: away (64%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (58%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: