EPL · MW6
Liverpool
vs
Manchester City
Marcus's prediction
LIVERPOOL
Marcus favours Liverpool to win (39% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Liverpool 1-1 Manchester City.
39
Conf.
Liverpool39%
Draw25%
Manchester City35%
Goals markets
53%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 12%1–0 10%2–1 10%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: away (40%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (55%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: