EPL · MW1Full time
Manchester City
2–1
Bournemouth
Marcus missed this one
Picked:BournemouthActual:2–1
We don't hide the misses. Every prediction stays on the record.
Marcus's prediction
BOURNEMOUTH
Marcus favours Bournemouth to win (54% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Manchester City 1-1 Bournemouth.
54
Conf.
Manchester City25%
Draw21%
Bournemouth54%
Goals markets
53%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 12%1–0 10%2–1 10%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: away (65%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (55%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: