EPL · MW3Full time
Manchester City
1–0
Coventry City
Marcus missed this, and was 66% confident
Picked:Coventry CityActual:1–0
We don't hide the misses. Every prediction stays on the record.
Marcus's prediction
COVENTRY CITY
Marcus favours Coventry City to win (66% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Manchester City 1-1 Coventry City.
66
Conf.
Manchester City18%
Draw15%
Coventry City66%
Goals markets
53%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 12%1–0 10%2–1 10%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: away (82%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (55%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: