EPL · MW2Full time
Manchester United
5–2
Ipswich Town
Marcus missed this one
Picked:Ipswich TownActual:5–2
We don't hide the misses. Every prediction stays on the record.
Marcus's prediction
IPSWICH TOWN
Marcus favours Ipswich Town to win (59% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Manchester United 1-1 Ipswich Town.
59
Conf.
Manchester United22%
Draw19%
Ipswich Town59%
Goals markets
53%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 12%1–0 10%2–1 10%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: away (71%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (55%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: