EPL · MW6
Manchester United
vs
Tottenham Hotspur
Marcus's prediction
MANCHESTER UNITED
Marcus favours Manchester United to win (56% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Manchester United 1-1 Tottenham Hotspur.
56
Conf.
Manchester United56%
Draw23%
Tottenham Hotspur21%
Goals markets
53%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 12%1–0 10%2–1 10%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: home (56%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (55%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: