EPL · MW7
Newcastle United
vs
Aston Villa
Marcus's prediction
ASTON VILLA
Marcus favours Aston Villa to win (39% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Newcastle United 1-1 Aston Villa.
39
Conf.
Newcastle United36%
Draw25%
Aston Villa39%
Goals markets
53%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 12%1–0 10%2–1 10%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: away (46%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (55%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: