EPL · MW4Full time
Sunderland
0–2
Arsenal
Marcus missed this one
Picked:SunderlandActual:0–2
We don't hide the misses. Every prediction stays on the record.
Marcus's prediction
SUNDERLAND
Marcus favours Sunderland to win (51% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Sunderland 0-1 Arsenal.
51
Conf.
Sunderland51%
Draw25%
Arsenal24%
Goals markets
39%
Over 2.5 goals
41%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
0–1 15%1–1 13%0–2 12%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: home (62%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: away (56%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: