EPL · MW6
Sunderland
vs
Brighton
Marcus's prediction
SUNDERLAND
Marcus favours Sunderland to win (40% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Sunderland 1-1 Brighton.
40
Conf.
Sunderland40%
Draw28%
Brighton32%
Goals markets
43%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 14%0–0 10%0–1 10%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: home (41%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: away (35%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: