EPL · MW2Full time
Sunderland
1–0
Fulham
Marcus missed this one
Picked:FulhamActual:1–0
We don't hide the misses. Every prediction stays on the record.
Marcus's prediction
FULHAM
Marcus favours Fulham to win (38% probability), blending market odds and the club Dixon-Coles model. Most likely scoreline: Sunderland 1-1 Fulham.
38
Conf.
Sunderland32%
Draw30%
Fulham38%
Goals markets
39%
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Both teams score
Most likely scorelines
1–1 14%0–0 12%1–0 11%
Key factors
- Market-implied favourite: away (41%)
- Dixon-Coles model favourite: home (38%)
- Blend weights: market 75% / stat 25%
Methodology: predictions blend de-vigged market odds (75%) with a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson statistical model (25%), fixed weights, tracked openly on the scorecard. Full methodology →
Prediction updated: